The Department for Work and Pensions’ Spring Forecast 2026 is, on one level, exactly what these documents often are: a dense set of tables, assumptions and projected expenditure lines. But behind the spreadsheets sits a much bigger story. This is not simply a forecast of welfare spending rising over time. It is a warning that…
Category: General
Subscription Spending, Household Budgets and Consumer Behaviour
Recurring digital payments have quietly become a fixed feature of household finances across the UK, Europe and the United States. For revenues and benefits services, understanding their scale, their cross-national consistency — and their ambiguous status as essential or discretionary spending — is becoming increasingly relevant. Revenues & Benefits Intelligence · Briefing Note The Scale…
When Systems Collide: Supported Housing, Reorganisation and Poverty in Local Government
The Independent Revenues and Benefits Monday Discussion Group on 30 March ranged across three familiar but connected themes: supported housing, local government reorganisation and the latest poverty figures. What tied the conversation together was a persistent sense that national systems are still passing risk, cost and confusion down to councils, while expecting local services to…
How Councils Can Use Administrative Data to Support the Delivery of the CRF
Administrative data supports councils in delivering the Crisis and Resilience Fund (CRF) end-to-end, from identifying residents who may be eligible for support to running targeted campaigns and tracking outcomes. Administrative data allows councils to identify who may need help, target outreach based on individual circumstances and local priorities, intervene earlier to prevent escalation, and understand…
Food banks, weather shocks and the next cost of living crisis
This week’s Independent R&B Monday Discussion Group opened with two subjects that, on the surface, might have looked separate, but quickly proved to be deeply connected. Malcolm Gardner framed the session around a practical question for local government: what happens when immediate hardship on the ground meets a wider economic shock that is still only…
The Stagflation Trap: Why the UK’s Cost-of-Living Crisis is Making a Dangerous Return
For a fleeting moment in early 2026, the UK appeared to have escaped the gravity of the inflation crisis. Households finally saw a window of relief as energy forecasts dipped and the Bank of England signaled a return to target. That window has slammed shut, replaced by a “Stagflation Trap” triggered by escalating Middle East…
Briefing note: fiscal and economic context and what it means for local tax, welfare support and local government finance (March 2026)
Purpose To set out a single, joined up view of the national economic and fiscal outlook, and the practical implications for council tax, council tax reduction (CTR), local welfare support (including DHP and crisis type schemes), benefits and social security, business rates, housing, local government finance, and local government reorganisation (LGR). This note draws on…
Independent R&B Monday Discussion Group: Crisis funding, pub relief, and the admin reality
Meeting summary for 2 February 2026 Who contributed Participants referenced in the transcript included: malcolm Gardner (chair), Naomi Armstrong, Nicki Duckworth, Kirsty Brooksmith (H&F), Gareth Morgan, Michael Fisher, Robert Fox, Paul Howarth, Sean O’Sullivan, Kevin Stewart, Elizabeth Whitehead-Davies, Rachael Walker. What we discussed The discussion ranged from immediate funding and relief changes that will land…
Crisis and Resilience Fund: a new pot, an old problem
On 26 January 2026, the Independent Revenues and Benefits Monday Discussion Group focused mainly on the new Crisis and Resilience Fund, with a closing round of linked updates on digital delivery, WorkWell, and a developing Council Tax Reduction legal challenge. Independent R&B Monday Discussi… Malcolm Gardner opened by setting out the central tension in the…
Happy New Year, and second mid-break update.
Happy new year to you all, and I hope 2026 is a fantastic and exciting year. Ah yes, LGR, local elections, and a fresh dose of Donald Trump inspired international chaos. Come back 2025, all is forgiven. This is a second update on what has been happening while we have been stuffing our faces with…